Kelsey Easton October 8, 2026
Yes, if you plan to stay put for several years and can live with a mortgage rate near 7%, buying in Austin right now is reasonable, because you have more negotiating room than buyers did in the last few years. If you need a lower rate to make the monthly payment work, waiting may make sense. Here is the data I am looking at, and how I am coaching buyers through the decision.
I grew up in Austin and I work with buyers at the $1M+ level, where the market behaves differently than the city as a whole. I am not predicting where prices go. I am telling you what the numbers say today and what that means for your leverage.
Freddie Mac's survey released October 8, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.4%, up from 7.28% the week before. That is the headline buyers feel most, because it changes the monthly payment on a $1M+ loan by a lot. If you are financing, get a lender to price your actual loan, including a rate buydown option if a seller or builder is offering one. Rates can change weekly, so treat any number here as a snapshot.
It sits in between, and that is exactly why leverage exists. Per a September 2026 Austin report that draws on RPR and Unlock MLS data, Austin had about 4.15 months of inventory, and the average sold-to-list price ratio was around 96.95%. Active listings were down year over year, so this is not a flood of inventory. But the same report said roughly 55% of active listings had taken at least one price cut, according to Unlock MLS. Sellers who priced aspirationally are having to adjust, and that is where buyers can negotiate.
The Unlock MLS figures in that September report showed 140 sales at $1M and above, about 21.8% of all sales that month. Homes in the $1M to $1.19M range sold at a median of 25 days and about 3.78% under asking. Homes at $1.4M and up sold about 4.4% under asking. On a $1.5M home, 4.4% is roughly $66,000 of room between the asking price and the final price.
Leverage shows up in three places. First, price reductions: a home that has already cut its price and has been sitting is a candidate for a real negotiation, not just a token offer. Second, concessions: closing cost credits and rate buydowns can matter as much as the price when rates are near 7%. Third, inspection and repair negotiations: with a longer time on market, sellers are less likely to refuse reasonable repair requests. Well-priced, well-presented homes in the best locations still move quickly, so do not assume every listing is negotiable.
Nobody knows where rates are going, and I will not pretend otherwise. What I can tell you is that waiting is a bet with two sides. If rates fall, more buyers come back and competition can rise. If rates stay high, you will have paid rent in the meantime. If you buy now at a price you negotiated well, you can often refinance later if rates improve, though that is never guaranteed and refinancing has its own costs. Run both scenarios with your lender and decide based on your timeline.
Buy now if you have a multi-year horizon, strong cash flow, and a home you love that is priced with room to negotiate. Wait if the payment at today's rate strains your budget. Either way, make a decision from your numbers rather than the headlines. I will tell you honestly if I think a home is overpriced.
It certainly can be, especially for buyers with a long-term outlook who can take advantage of today's more favorable negotiating conditions. With less competition and more inventory to choose from, buyers may have opportunities to negotiate on price, seller concessions, closing costs, and repairs that were much harder to come by just a few years ago. That said, higher interest rates remain a challenge, and I wouldn't necessarily expect a dramatic market rebound in 2027. Between ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and the approaching election cycle, there are still several factors that could influence consumer confidence and the housing market. The reality is that it's nearly impossible to perfectly time the real estate market. If purchasing a home aligns with your family's needs, financial goals, and long-term plans, it may make more sense to buy while market conditions favor buyers rather than wait for prices or interest rates to reach an unpredictable bottom.
My advice? Focus less on trying to time the market perfectly and more on finding the right home, at the right price, with terms that make financial sense for you. Today's buyer-friendly conditions may present opportunities that aren't necessarily available when the market becomes competitive again.
Austin showed a median sold price roughly flat to slightly up from a year earlier. Many individual sellers are still cutting prices, which is where buyers find deals. It will vary across different neighborhoods and can change month to month depending on the season and current available inventory.
Luxury buyers in Austin may have more negotiating leverage today than they did during the height of the market, but the amount you can negotiate depends heavily on the property's price point, neighborhood, condition, and how realistically the seller has priced the home. According to September data from Unlock MLS, homes priced at $1.4 million and above sold for approximately 4.4% below their asking price, on average. However, that figure doesn't tell the entire story, especially as we move into Austin's ultra-luxury market.
Once you get above $3 million, and particularly above $5 million, the dynamics of negotiation can change significantly. The buyer pool becomes considerably smaller, properties tend to be more unique, and sellers may face longer marketing periods before finding the right buyer. For a seller who is motivated to move, has already purchased another property, or has been sitting on the market for an extended period, that can create meaningful opportunities for negotiation.
For example, a 5% reduction on a $3 million property represents $150,000 in savings. On a $5 million estate, that same percentage represents $250,000. And depending on the circumstances, some properties may offer even greater negotiating opportunities.
However, a luxury home listed for $5 million isn't automatically worth $4.75 million simply because buyers have negotiating power. Some sellers have already adjusted their asking prices to reflect current market conditions, while others are still pricing based on what comparable homes commanded during the market's peak. Understanding that distinction is critical.
In Austin's luxury neighborhoods, including West Lake Hills, Tarrytown, Pemberton Heights, Barton Creek, Spanish Oaks, and waterfront properties along Lake Austin, pricing can vary dramatically based on factors such as lot size, architecture, privacy, views, waterfront access, quality of construction, and the availability of comparable properties.
At the $3 million to $5 million-plus level, I pay particular attention to a property's original list price, cumulative days on market, previous price reductions, competing inventory, recent comparable sales, and whether the seller has demonstrated motivation. A home that's been listed for 200 days and reduced several times may present a very different opportunity than a newly listed property that's priced appropriately from the beginning. For luxury buyers, negotiations can also extend beyond the purchase price to include repairs, closing timelines, furnishings, and other contract terms that may carry substantial value.
My approach is to evaluate each luxury property individually, using neighborhood-specific market data, comparable sales, property history, and the seller's circumstances to determine where meaningful leverage exists. The goal isn't simply to negotiate the biggest discount. It's to acquire the right property at a price that makes sense in today's Austin market.
It depends on how long you plan to keep the loan and what it costs. Ask your lender to compare a buydown against a lower price or closing credit.
If you're thinking about buying or selling in Austin at the $1M+ level, I'd love to chat.
Kelsey Easton, Compass Austin
(512) 699-6091
[email protected]
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KELSEY EASTON
2500 BEE CAVES RD WEST LAKE HILLS TX 78746